The ceasefire between Iran and the US should be seen not merely as a narrow development that reduces military tension between the two countries, but also as a strategic turning point that could affect the balance of the entire Middle East and global power relations. The conflict dynamics between these two actors have been shaped not so much by direct military encounters, but by longstanding regional influence struggles, ideological differences, and proxy wars. Therefore, the significance of the ceasefire is not only the silencing of weapons, but also the fact that this rivalry is temporarily being continued through different means. 

 

From the perspective of the Middle East, the tension between Iran and the US is directly felt in countries such as Iraq, Syria, Yemen, and Lebanon. Armed groups supported by Iran and the US military presence in the region have turned this geography into a constant area of competition. Therefore, a declared ceasefire does not mean that conflicts in these countries will completely end; however, it can lead to a decrease in the intensity of the conflict and allow the parties to reposition themselves. In this process, the capacity of local actors to act independently will be a critical factor determining the practical applicability of the ceasefire on the ground. 

 

OIL AND ENERGY POLICIES

 

The regional effects of the ceasefire are not limited to the security sector. Energy policies are also directly impacted by this development. The Middle East accounts for a significant portion of the world’s oil and natural gas supply, and tensions between Iran and the US pose risks, particularly at critical transit points such as the Strait of Hormuz. Maintaining the ceasefire can enhance the security of energy supplies and contribute to price stability in global markets. Conversely, the breakdown of the ceasefire could trigger sudden spikes in oil prices and global economic fluctuations. 

 

At the global level, this ceasefire is also important in the context of power competition. Powers such as Russia and Chine closely monitor developments in the region through their relations with Iran and take positions in line with their strategic interests. The decrease or increase in the level of US engagement in the Middle East can directly affect the influence of these powers in the region. At the same time, actors such as the European Union (EU) are also directly affected by such developments, especially due to issues like energy security and migration. 

 

VIOLATION OF THE CEASEFIRE

 

The sustainability of the ceasefire is a rather complicated issue. Mistrust between the parties, past crises, and fundamental disagreements, especially over the nuclear program, make such an agreement fragile. While it is possible for large-scale conflicts to cease, low-intensity tensions, cyber-attacks, assassinations, or operations conducted through proxy forces can continue. This situation creates a “grey area” in which the ceasefire is technically in effect but is continuously violated in practice.

 

The most likely scenario for the next period is the continuation of a controlled tension situation. In this scenario, while the parties avoid direct war, they continue the regional influence struggle through different means. In a more negative possibility, the collapse of the ceasefire could lead to a chain escalation, triggering a broader conflict across the Middle East. Such a development would have serious consequences not only for regional but also for global economic and political stability.

 

In a more optimistic but less likely scenario, the ceasefire could mark the beginning of a more comprehensive diplomatic process. In this process, issues such as the nuclear program, sanctions, and regional security arrangements could be negotiated. However, such progress would require the parties to make significant concessions, and considering the current political conditions, it is regarded as a limited possibility in the short term. 

 

The ceasefire between Iran and the US is a multi-layered development that affects not only the relations between the two countries but also the overall stability of the Middle East and global power balances. The durability of this ceasefire will be determined less by the intentions of the parties and more by regional dynamics, global power competition, and the behaviour of actors on the ground. Therefore, it would be a more realistic approach to view this ceasefire not as an end, but as a temporary phase of a broader geopolitical process filled with uncertainties.

 

MA / Remzi Coşkun